Democrat Joe Biden leads nationwide voting intention in the United States with a 12-point advantage over President Donald Trump, according to a Reuters / Ipsos opinion poll that also showed that the number of influenceable voters had dropped compared to the last presidential elections .
The poll, conducted Sept. 3-8, showed that 52% of potential voters planned to support Biden , while 40% would vote for Trump. 3% said they would vote for another candidate, and only 5% said they were still undecided less than two months before the November 3 presidential election.
The poll found that the number of voters who had not yet supported a candidate from a majority party was less than half what it was in 2016, and that Biden currently had the advantage of winning the popular vote nationwide. .
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Even if the rest of the undecided voters supported Trump, according to the poll, the Republican would still lose the popular vote in favor of Biden .
However, Trump could still remain in the White House even without the national popular vote because the presidential elections of the United States are not decided by the general vote of the Americans , but by who wins the so-called Electoral College (Electoral College) . ), made up of “electors”.
These are elected in each state according to the ballot box and have the function of voting for the president and vice president, so that the one who takes the cat to the water is the one who gets the most states. Four years ago, Democrat Hillary Clinton got nearly 3 million more votes than Trump. However, it was enough for the Republican to narrowly win the Electoral College to win the presidency.
Based on registered voters, which include those least likely to vote, Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points , compared to a 7-point advantage in a similar poll published last week.
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Pandemic and confidence in the government
The poll showed likely voters were primarily motivated by the coronavirus pandemic , which has killed more than 186,000 Americans and left millions out of work, and by the restoration of confidence in the government.
Asked about their motivations for choosing president, 28% said it was the candidate’s perceived ability to manage the coronavirus, while 23% said it was the ability to restore confidence in the Government . Another 19% said it was the candidate’s ability to boost the economy , and 14% said they were looking for a candidate who was “tough on crime.”
51% of potential voters said Biden would do better at managing the pandemic in the US , while 38% said he would be Trump. But the Republican has the upper hand when it comes to the perception of who would be “tough on crime and civil unrest , ” with 45% electing Trump, while 40% saying Biden would be better in this regard.
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In the economy, neither candidate has the upper hand among likely voters: 45% said they thought Biden would be better for the national economy and job creation, while 45% were betting on Trump.
Biden, who has been ahead of Trump for most of the year in most national opinion polls, has benefited from a recent migration to the Democratic side of some of America’s most trusted voters: whites with University education.
While non-college whites continue to largely support Trump over Biden, the president has not consolidated the level of dominant support that he did enjoy with that group four years ago when he ran for election against Clinton.
So far, opinion polls from other media outlets give Biden a slight edge over Trump in a handful of competitive states, including Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. That lead also appears to have shrunk in some cases in recent weeks.
The survey was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It collected responses from 823 likely voters, including 390 who identified as Democrats and 351 who identified as Republicans. Surveys have a margin of error — a way of measuring the accuracy of polls — of plus or minus 4 percentage points.